I. Silver Market Review in May: Long-Legged Doji Reveals Bull-Bear Stalemate

The silver market in May exhibited intense volatility, oscillating widely around the $32.68-$33.56/ounce range. Opening at $33.42/ounce at the beginning of the month, it subsequently probed a monthly low of $32.68, followed by a rebound to test the high resistance at $33.56. Ultimately, the monthly candle closed at $32.97, forming a long-legged Doji with balanced upper and lower shadows. This candlestick structure indicates fierce competition between bulls and bears at the $33 psychological level, with the market direction currently unclear, suggesting a high probability of continued range-bound oscillations in June. Close attention should be paid to breakout signals at key price levels.

II. Weekly Technical Analysis: Medium Bearish Candle Establishes Short-Term Correction Tone

Last week, the silver weekly candle opened lower at $33.42. After rebounding to $33.56, it quickly pulled back, touching a low of $32.68, and finally closed at $32.97, forming a medium bearish candle with a lower shadow. The technical characteristics are as follows:

1.  Moving Average System: The 5-week moving average ($33.20) and 10-week moving average ($33.05) formed a death cross, indicating significant short-term suppression.

2.  Bollinger Bands: The price broke below the middle band ($33.10), and the Bollinger Bands mouth narrowed, suggesting a convergence in volatility.

3.  RSI Indicator: The value retreated to around 45, situated in a neutral-to-weak zone, with bears having a slight advantage.

Conclusion: On the weekly level, bears are slightly more active, but the lower shadow indicates buying support around $32.70, showing a "weak bearish oscillation" pattern in the short term.

III. Monday Trading Strategy: Primarily Shorting Highs, Supplemented by Buying Lows, Focusing on Key Price Levels

1.  Bearish Strategy (Main Logic)

a.  Entry Timing: Rebound to around $33.30

b.  Stop Loss Setting: $33.45 (break above weekly high confirms strength)

c.  Target Prices:First Target: $33.00 (lower edge of May oscillation center)

i.  Second Target: $32.80 (weekly low support)

d.  Supporting Logic:$33.30 is the confluence of May's rebound high and the weekly 5-period moving average, providing significant technical resistance.

i.  Trump's policy uncertainty may trigger fluctuations in market risk sentiment; if risk appetite rebounds, silver, as a "precious metal + industrial property" commodity, is susceptible to dual pressure.

2.  Bullish Strategy (Auxiliary Logic)

a.  Entry Timing: Retracement to around $32.80

b.  Stop Loss Setting: $32.65 (break below May low confirms breakdown)

c.  Target Prices:First Target: $33.10 (reverse pressure from weekly middle band)

i.  Second Target: $33.30 (upper edge of the range)

d.  Supporting Logic:$32.70-$32.80 is a strong support area tested multiple times in May, with potential for bargain-hunting funds to intervene.

i.  If geopolitical risks escalate (e.g., intensifying Russia-Ukraine conflict), the safe-haven property of precious metals might drive silver to rebound.

IV. Related Market Influence: Linkage Effect of Gold and Crude Oil

1.  Gold Market: May closed with a long-legged Doji, highly synchronized with silver's trend, currently oscillating in the $3300-$3350 range. If gold breaks below the key level of $3300, it might drag silver down to $32.50; conversely, if gold breaks above $3350, silver might follow to test $33.50 resistance.

2.  Crude Oil Market: Last week saw wide oscillations around $60-$63, with a short-term trend independent of precious metals. Caution is advised against a crude oil rebound leading to an overall warming of commodity sentiment, indirectly providing support for silver.

V. Risk Warning and Operational Discipline

1.  Policy Risk: Pay attention to the US May ISM Manufacturing PMI data on Monday evening. If the data is stronger than expected, it might strengthen Fed rate hike expectations, which would be negative for silver.

2.  Position Management: Single trade position should not exceed 3% of total capital, and stop-loss amplitude should be controlled within $0.15 to avoid frequent stop-losses during range oscillations.

3.  Trend Reversal Signal: If silver's closing price breaks above $33.56 (May high) or below $32.68 (May low), decisively adjust the strategy and enter the market in the direction of the breakout.

Conclusion

The current silver market is at a bull-bear watershed, and the struggle at the $33 psychological level will determine the short-term direction. Operationally, it is recommended to adopt a "short high, long low" oscillation strategy, while preparing for a breakout. For medium-to-long-term investors, focus on trend opportunities after a breakout above $33.50. If it effectively stabilizes above this price, silver is expected to start a new round of upward movement, targeting $34.50; conversely, if it breaks below $32.50, be wary of the risk of falling to $32.00.